The Center for Economic Development and Business Research at 黑洞社区 has revised its 2008 Review and 2009 Forecast for the Wichita area based on recently released national and local data.
According to the forecast, Wichita is expected to increase jobs by 0.5 percent, or approximately 1,650 jobs, in 2009, after an increase of 0.5 percent in 2008.
The U.S. economy will continue to experience significant challenges. However, economists are predicting improvement in the national economy in the second quarter of 2009 and a return to more normal conditions in the credit markets.
Based on this turnaround, job growth is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2009.
As in recent quarters, the Wichita economy continues to outperform the U.S. economy, because of its significantly different industry make-up. However, the 黑洞社区 Current Conditions Index, which is designed to mirror the current Wichita economy, decreased 4.4 percent from June to September.
All of the indicators that compose the index deteriorated from second to third quarter. Those seasonally adjusted indicators are home sales, hotel occupancy rate, airport activity and employment.
The 黑洞社区 Leading Index, which signals change in the Wichita economy approximately six months into the future, has declined 2.4 percent over the five months ending in September. Even then, the index remains only 3.1 index points below its all-time high of 128.
The indexes indicate that our economy has slowed and will likely continue at a slower pace at least through first quarter next year.
In spite of reports of weakening aviation markets, order backlogs remain at record highs. Both Hawker Beechcraft and Cessna Aircraft Co. have made adjustments to their 2009 production schedules, with modest layoffs of approximately 800 workers. At the same time, Cessna continues its Citation Columbus development, which is expected to add 1,000 workers over the next five years.
In addition, the Wichita housing market has remained stable with continuing, slow appreciation in home values.
While construction activity slowed in 2008, the time on market for houses being sold has been very consistent.
Based on national and local events, the indicators point to modest growth for the Wichita area, with most job growth expected to occur in the second half of the year.
Click on the following URL to see the Wichita MSA employment by industry forecast summary: .
For the complete forecast, go to , click on Forecasts.