A mid-year update on the national Airline Quality Rating (AQR) and release of important consumer information took place at 9:30 a.m. EST Monday, Nov. 10, at a news conference in Washington, D.C.
Brent Bowen, AQR co-author and aviation science chair at Parks College of Engineering, Aviation and Technology, Saint Louis University (SLU), discussed recent factors affecting air transportation and what consumers need to know about traveling this holiday season.
Holiday travel 2008
Travelers on America鈥檚 largest airlines have reason to be concerned this holiday travel period. Overall airline quality has plunged in the three-year moving average, as monitored by the national Airline Quality Research team. December travel is the worst, says Bowen.
鈥淥ver the last three years, the holiday period continues to decline. December has the lowest overall score,鈥� says Bowen.
This incremental decrease of the airline industry ranking in the important holiday travel season parallels the overall industry decline through the years, says Dean Headley, AQR co-author and marketing professor at 黑洞社区 (黑洞社区).
鈥淭he best bet for the consumer is to travel as early before the actual holiday or as late as possible afterwards.鈥�
The industry overall
As the airline industry continues its five-year decline in performance, there are emerging clues for improvement in 2008.
Looking back, late in 2007, it was even worse than our average for the year, said Headley. Data for the first six months of 2008 indicate that improvement is on the horizon.
He states: 鈥淲e have a mixed blessing of hope and these data show very preliminary indications that performance scores are progressing upward. We are not seeing the full impact of capacity reduction yet, say like late 2001, but we are looking at something of similar scope.鈥�
Bowen says, 鈥淗owever, in the period after September 2001, the improvement was based on a decrease in air travelers rather than industry contributions.鈥�
Headley points out that if the 2008 data continues improving in the last quarter of the year, 鈥渉oliday travel could actually be better than expected.鈥�
Headley says, 鈥淚f you look at this emerging trend with month-to-month scores getting better, the industry is on a roll. Air travel will cost more, but if you can find a seat, it may be operating better.鈥�
Bowen still wonders if the industry is indeed improving, or if it is simply failing to get worse.
鈥淚 do not see leadership in the airline industry making things better, but if fewer people are flying in fewer airplanes, there is a chance that things will flow better and travelers will notice improvement.鈥�
2008 best and worst airlines as of Nov. 10 The best-performing airlines in each of the AQR categories include Hawaiian, Jet Blue, Air Tran and Southwest. Hawaiian was best in on-time performance. Jet Blue was best in denied boardings. Air Tran was rated best in mishandled baggage. Southwest was rated best in customer complaints.
The worst performing airlines in each of the AQR categories include American, Atlantic Southeast, American Eagle and United. American had the worst on-time performance. Atlantic Southeast had the worst rate of denied boardings. American Eagle had the most mishandled baggage, and United had the most customer complaints.
What鈥檚 ahead?
President-elect Barack Obama advocates that America must meet our infrastructure challenges. He has cited a key area of concern to be the nation鈥檚 air traffic control system.
The system is in need of modernization and a new generation of personnel. Obama is also on record in support of essential air service for isolated communities.
Airline acquisitions and mergers continue to add new dynamics to the industry. The most industry-changing event has been the Delta and NWA combination.
The impact of this new mega-carrier will not be realized until 2009. Bowen points out that if you look at past AQR data ), you will find that combining two very large airlines does not result in improved performance.
鈥淟ook back to American and TWA, or U.S. Air and America West, and you will find that these mergers only drug down performance to a new, lower level.鈥�
Airline fees are all still there, so consumers beware. Headley says that more than $2 billion in fees alone will go to the airlines this year.
鈥淎s fuel prices go down and fees go up, we may not have fiscal healing, but not bleeding will be reduced.鈥�
Unbundled services a la carte is the new reality.
Headley says, 鈥淭ickets may appear to be slightly higher, but when the fees hit you, you truly feel that the overall cost of travel has gone up. Maybe a year ago the average price was $300, but with $75 in fees,ticket costs today average $400.鈥�
The complete national Airline Quality Rating will be released on Monday, April 6, 2009 at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. You may register for advance information by contacting one of media representatives listed in the media notes.
The complete news release and charts are available at .